The world is on the brink of another global pandemic, and experts are sounding the alarm. With the recent outbreaks of diphtheria in Australia, Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, and the ongoing threat of the H5N1 avian flu, the chances of a severe pandemic are very high, according to Professor Adrian Esterman, chair of biostatistics at Adelaide University. He warns that the next pandemic could be far more serious than COVID-19, and we must be prepared.
The H5N1 avian flu is particularly concerning. It has already killed millions of birds and infected other animals worldwide, and it has started spreading from animals to humans. While no human-to-human transmissions have been reported yet, the human mortality rate is high, and Australia and Oceania are currently the only regions free of this strain. However, the good news is that there is a vaccine, and it's made by an Australian manufacturer, so we would be well-prepared if H5N1 were to become the next pandemic.
Australia has made significant progress in preparing for future pandemics. We now have our own Centre for Disease Control (CDC), purpose-built quarantine stations, a Moderna factory for vaccine production, and stockpiled drugs and equipment. We also have some experience managing a pandemic, which is crucial. However, the challenge lies in maintaining this preparedness over the long term.
Dr Davoud Pourmarzi, an epidemiologist from The Australian National University National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, warns that if the next pandemic doesn't hit for 15 years or more, we may have forgotten what we learned during COVID-19. He emphasizes the importance of including COVID-19 learnings in university curricula and updating pandemic preparedness plans at national, state, and territory levels. Social determinants of health, such as access to health services and trust in health authorities, also play a crucial role in protecting everyone.
Despite the high risk, Esterman advises the general public not to lose sleep over it. Instead, they should take steps to protect themselves and others from localized outbreaks of diseases like diphtheria, measles, and syphilis. He expresses concern about declining vaccine coverage, which is causing smaller outbreaks that we don't want or need. Declining trust in public health and misinformation spread online have exacerbated the situation.
In conclusion, the world must prepare for the next global pandemic, and Australia is taking steps to be ready. However, it's crucial to maintain vigilance and continue developing pandemic preparedness plans. As the CDC spokesperson reminds us, the question is not whether future infectious disease outbreaks and health emergencies will occur but how well-prepared we are when they do. Strong public health systems, informed communities, and high vaccination coverage are our best protections against future health threats.
